Aljamain Sterling returns to the Octagon Saturday night at UFC Vegas 116, looking to keep his featherweight title push alive against rising contender Youssef Zalal— and I’m not shocked that Zalal enters as the slight favorite.

Sterling is 37 years old, a brutal age to be competing in the 145-pound division, and more than 12 years into a UFC career on its tail end. Zalal is only 29, riding a five-fight win streak consisting of four finishes. In theory, this should be the time and place where the new guard supersedes the old.

But Aljamain Sterling isn’t ready to lay down to Father Time just yet, and I have little faith that Zalal is the man to make him.

Zalal has shown legitimate grappling acumen on his recent run, most notably a lethal submission game, but it’s come against a middling field—the likes of Josh Emmett and Jack Shore. Sterling should be able to nullify that almost completely.

And on the feet, while his boxing leaves a lot to be desired, Zalal is no slouch. He’s long, elusive, and tricky with his knees and kicks. He can play the range game here and might even shave off a round or two. Keeping that up for five is a much tougher proposition.

He simply doesn’t have the output or the power to keep Aljo at bay for 25 minutes. We saw it against Calvin Kattar a couple fights ago. Zalal controlled the Octagon early, but began to waver once Kattar closed the distance and turned up the pressure.

Sterling is a steep step up in competition. Zalal is out of his depth here. Eventually Aljo is going to press forward, and Zalal has nothing to dissuade him. The former champion should have his way in the grappling, getting Zalal down and keeping him there with relative ease.

We’ve never seen Zalal’s defensive grappling tested against someone of Sterling’s caliber, and that’s a massive unknown. Can he weather the storm and make it to the final horn, or does he become a fish out of water? I’d err on the side of caution either way. The line is generous as-is.

Pick: Aljimain Sterling ML (+108)