UFC 322 aims to extend Madison Square Garden’s longstanding tradition of blockbuster fight nights, from McGregor–Alvarez in 2016 and Usman–Covington in 2021 to the Jones–Miocic clash at last year’s UFC 309. This year’s marquee matchup has the potential to trump them all.
Main Event: Jack Della Maddalena (18-2, Champion) vs. Islam Makhachev (27-1) — Welterweight Title Fight
In a highly anticipated superfight, newly crowned welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena (18-2-0) defends his title against Islam Makhachev (27-1-0) (Makhachev -245 / Della Maddalena +200), who vacated the lightweight belt last summer after four successful defenses. Neither man has lost in nearly a decade.
On paper, this looks to be a quintessential striker-versus-grappler matchup—a dynamic which has historically favored the latter, particularly in Makhachev’s dominant wins over Dustin Poirier in 2024 and Bobby Green in 2022. But, simply put, the Australian striker presents a leaner, meaner challenge than anything Makhachev is used to. For one, Maddalena isn’t just a striker; he’s arguably the most skilled boxer in the UFC today—and he’s in his physical prime.
He’s also a big dude, even by welterweight standards. That was always going to be a hurdle for Makhachev, who’s moving up 15 pounds in weight class, but Maddalena is particularly imposing. In a recent picture with John Cena, Maddalena, tall and broad-shouldered, boasted a comparable stature to the pro-wrestling titan. In his past lightweight bouts, Makhachev found success by overpowering his opponents—many of them former featherweights like Poirier, Volkanovski, and Oliveira. Maddalena isn’t gonna be so easy to manhandle.
Still though, Makhachev is an indomitable force of nature, on a collision course to cement his place among the sport’s all-time greats. I’d shy away from betting money on this one—there are too many uncertainties. But if I had to make a pick, I’d give it to Makhachev by a narrow decision victory (Makhachev by decision +230).
Already, Makhachev is mapping out his reconquest of the lightweight division, issuing callouts to current champion Ilia Topuria and rising contender Paddy Pimblett. But he may have unfinished business with Della Maddalena, regardless of who leaves Madison Square Garden with the belt.
Leon Edwards (22-5, No. 4) vs. Carlos Prates (22-7, No. 9)
As the welterweight championship hangs in the balance, other divisional contenders will make their bids on the undercard. Former champion Leon Edwards (22-5, No. 4) takes on the young and hungry No. 9-ranked Carlos Prates (22-7) (Prates -200 / Edwards +170).
Everyone seems to be counting out Edwards here, and not for nothing. It’s been a rough year and a half for the Englishman, who dropped his belt by decision to Belal Muhammad last July and then suffered the first finish of his career in March, when Sean Brady submitted him in his hometown O2 arena.
I sense a major redemption for Edwards. The crux of his two-loss skid has been the sterilization of his striking by the tough stylistic matchups of Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady, both elite wrestlers. Prates doesn’t offer that same challenge. This fight should stay on the feet, where Edwards ought to make relatively easy work of Prates, who suffered his first UFC defeat to Ian Machado Garry in March but regained momentum with a knockout win over Geoff Neal in August. If Edwards can’t stand with Prates, that’d be a revelation in regards to his current form, but I’m not ready to come to that conclusion just yet.
I’m backing the dog here. Given that this is a three-round fight and Edwards is historically a slow starter, I could see this going the distance (odds TBD), but I’d keep an eye out for a knockout here (odds TDB).
A win over Prates won’t be enough to warrant a title shot in a brimming Welterweight division, but if Edwards plans on reclaiming his championship, getting back in the win column is a start.
Michael Morales (18-0, No. 8) vs. Sean Brady (18-1, No. 2)
Brady seemed to be in line for a title shot after his thorough domination and fourth-round finish of Leon Edwards just eight months ago. Instead, he’s taking a detour to face one of MMA’s most dangerous and explosive prospects in the undefeated Michael Morales (Morales -120 / Brady -120).
Evidently, it wasn’t his first choice. “I took this fight because fighters fight, and there were literally no other options,” Brady said on his Bradybagz Show. “From what the UFC told me, this was it. This was the only guy I could fight, or else I wasn’t fighting until next year.”
Brady remains a lethal submission threat as he looks to string together his fourth straight win, but Morales poses a major danger. With a seven-inch reach advantage, explosive hands, and underrated fundamentals, this matchup spells bad news for the Philadelphian. Brady’s path to victory lies almost entirely in his grappling, but getting there will be easier said than done. I’m expecting a finish here. It could go either way, but I have to give the edge to Morales by knockout (odds TDB).
Brady is due for a shot, but it’s possible he’d still be denied even after a win here. It’s just as hard to see Morales leapfrogging the rankings if he pulls it off. The more likely path runs through Qatar, where Belal Muhammad (24-4, No. 1) and Ian Garry (16-1, No. 6) will square off on November 22, with the winner feeding into the Makhachev–Della Maddalena outcome.
UFC 322 looks to be a huge night for the welterweight division, and for the sport as a whole. The main card is rounded out by a ranked lightweight matchup between Benoît Saint-Denis and Beneil Dariush, and a co-main women’s flyweight superfight between No. 1 pound-for-pound Valentina Shevchenko and No. 2 Zhang Weili, who vacated her strawweight title to take up the challenge.
