SELL: Chicago Bears
A part of me thinks I should be patient, but another part of me thinks you’d have to be a sucker to think patience is gonna solve whatever’s going on here. To draft “generational” quarterback Caleb Williams and surround him with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, and Cole Kmet promised a new, exciting era. I don’t think the biggest pessimist could’ve imagined our offense would be more sterile than last year.
The Bears are averaging 4 yards per passing attempt and 3.5 yards per carry. Abysmal. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is playcalling like Luke Getsy reincarnate, which makes you wonder if there’s a bigger, underlying issue in the Eberflus system. We are struggling to string together any semblance of a competent drive. On the other hand, the defense has been terrific, solely winning us our season opener against the Titans despite sub-100 passing yards, and holding the Texans to less than twenty points which Chicago completely failed to capitalize on. Caleb Williams’ decision making has been shoddy, and I don’t love how he’s seeing the field, but his offensive line has regressed into likely the worst in the league and he’s been getting slaughtered, maybe worse than even Fields ever was.
Matt Eberflus has been coaching on borrowed time for a while now. I get it, you don’t want to axe your fourth coach in ten years and unleash organizational armageddon like the Carolina Panthers, which we are about one step away from. But when you bring in a new quarterback with the first overall pick, reshape your roster, and basically self-define a new era, it’s imperative to cut loose ends which Eberflus so clearly was. We should have nipped it in the bud before Williams ever stepped on the field. We all expected some level of offensive horsepower from this team out of the gate, and to find ourselves dead last in many key statistics is disheartening. I can’t conceal my disappointment. I’m out on this team for the foreseeable future.
BUY: Pittsburgh Steelers
136.5 team yards per game, one total touchdown and eight field goals. 18-10 over the Falcons, 13-6 over the Broncos, 2-0. This is how they win. No, the Bears shouldn’t have kept Justin Fields. Let’s not start that. Albeit, in Mike Tomlin’s stable, low-volume system, Fields has emerged as a rock solid backup, playing the most efficient football of his career. This offense won’t find its wings until Russell Wilson is recovered from injury and at the helm, but in the meantime, Fields gets the job done in a role that is commendable even if it’s not what his most passionate (or delusional) defenders wanted to see out of him.
As usual, the Steelers’ defensive culture and personnel steers this ship, and it won’t break the Nielsen ratings but it gets wins, and they can do this all season. Wilson may energize things on the offensive side of the ball, but they should be in no rush to get Fields off the field. Pittsburgh’s ceiling blocks any real Super Bowl contendership, but they made it to the playoffs last year with Kenny Pickett and it looks like they’ll be back. 31 teams don’t win the Super Bowl every year, sometimes you just want some hearty dividends.
HOLD: New Orleans Saints
Here’s a team that Vegas had at +550 odds to win the worst division in the league. Here’s a team that was told to be in salary-cap hell, stuck deep in the mud of mediocrity. That team has exploded for a combined 91 points in their first two games. Beating on the league laughing stock and divisional rival Carolina Panthers is a nice way to open your season. But to go into Jerry’s World, where the Cowboys have only lost one time in the past two years, and walk all over the field is… something else. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, a descendent of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, has been nothing short of a miracle worker. Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara look rejuvenated, and he’s made something truly substantial out of their receiving core.
They remain ferocious on the defensive side of the ball as well, and both pieces have come together to score two huge wins. Still, I suspect some early season chicanery here, and Kubiak’s offensive schemes have certainly been put on notice. A market correction feels inevitable. The question is, just how much will that be? I need to see just a little bit more of this kind of play before I’m all in with the Saints. They host the Eagles this Sunday, and the way the Eagles have been playing, I’m looking for a 0 in New Orleans’ loss column through week 3.
BUY: Buffalo Bills
“The Bills Super Bowl window is closing,” they said. Well, I’m waiting. They look great. The losses of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis were tough, but when you have a quarterback like Josh Allen, it’s a lot easier to pivot, and so they’ve done. First by shaking off the rust and overcoming a 14-point deficit against the Cardinals, and then with a vintage pummeling of the Dolphins. Finding a homegrown receiving core of Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid, Allen has combined for 371 yards and 3 touchdowns on 73.8% completion while staving off turnovers. James Cook carries a lot of the load as he inches towards top-tier running back status. Don’t listen to the fear mongering analysts or the fear mongered fans, the Bills’ “Super Bowl window” is staying open for as long as #17 is under center. This team is going nowhere.
SELL: Miami Dolphins
At this time last year the Dolphins were relishing in a 70-20 win over the Broncos, and I’d gleefully bought into them. By the beginning of December, they’d go onto a 9-3 record, three games ahead of division favorite Buffalo Bills. They lost the next three of five, while the rallying Bills stole the AFC East on the last game of the season. They were quietly eliminated by the Chiefs at Arrowhead in -20 degree wind chills. The year before that was a similar story. A flattering 8-3 start followed by a five game skid and a Wild Card elimination.
Well, the Dolphins aren’t even bothered to put up that facade this year. Last Thursday was Miami’s worst nightmare. The Dolphins were blown out 10-31 at home, their twelfth loss to the Bills out of their last thirteen matchups. It was a sobering, early reminder of who runs their division. In the third quarter, it got much, much worse when Tagovailoa was hit by Damar Hamlin on a scramble and laid on the floor for too long: the fourth concussion of his career. He is declared out until at least week 8 and is surrounded by legitimate questions of medical retirement. In the meantime, the Dolphins are dead in the water. Some persistent questions will need to be faced soon, about whether Tua Tagovailoa can succeed as a franchise quarterback, or play the sport at all, and whether Mike McDaniel can cultivate a true winning culture in Miami, which he’s resoundingly failed at.
