The war in Ukraine has seen a subtle shift in the past months, which have led to the Russian Federation seizing initiative on the frontline.

Russia continues to take heavy losses in both man and material, though Ukraine faces a massive shortage in manpower and supplies. Russia is making steady progress across the frontline and in the process of doing so is seeing moral successes including the first HIMARS missile system being destroyed in Ukraine. Since the beginning of the war, Western nations have been supplying Ukraine with HIMARS and until Mar. 5, not a single one had been destroyed despite being the main missile system used by Ukraine.

Russia also knocked out an American M-1 Abrams main battle tank for the first time in history, something that the Syrians did over a decade ago. The Abrams was hit in the ammo rack which in any Russian tank would cause the turret to blow up straight into the sky in a beautiful fireworks display. The Abrams has ‘blowout panels’ which stop such a thing from happening, pushing the blast upwards away from the crew. It is likely that the crew survived and likely that the tank was recovered by Ukraine. An outcome that would have Russian tankers drowning in jealousy, with their jaws dropped in awe.

“Ukraine needs to prove itself as a viable military counterpart to the Russian army and until then the west can’t keep giving Ukraine the best weapons hoping it works out,” social studies teacher Aaron Minkus said. “Until Ukraine can mount a successful counter-offensive the outcome of the war is unclear.”

Ukraine is facing an extremely critical manpower shortage which has been plaguing the nation for a year now, lack of manpower leads to units fighting below maximum capacity as well as exhaustion and low morale due to infantry having to stay on the front longer without being relieved by fresh units. Ukraine would need hundreds of thousands of soldiers to be conscripted to fill in their ranks, though Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky worries about how said conscripts would be paid. The E.U. approved a $57 billion aid package to Ukraine and a $60 billion aid package is stalled in the United States congress.

It is unclear how the war in Ukraine will conclude, though unless Ukraine gets a miracle it is likely that Russia will win long term.