Over the past few months, both sides in Ukraine have struggled to make territorial gains even with the ongoing offensives.
Both sides are clearly running out of resources even with Ukraine being so heavily supported by the West. Both sides were never equipped to be fighting such a long war of attrition and it’s starting to show. Ukraine is still gaining ground however Russian troops are fighting tooth and nail to keep their territory and it’s showing how slow progress is. The strategic mistakes made by both sides, especially the Russians, is showing how the world has forgotten how to properly wage conventional war.
“I think Ukraine is going to win,” Sophomore Michael Tigu said. “They have a lot of support from America and NATO. I’m confident in Ukraine.”
Since the beginning of August, Ukraine has been launching drone strikes against strategic targets within Russia, causing many to be shot down. Ukraine is still winning, however, progress has been extremely slow, and very few territorial changes have been made as casualties are still mounting. Russia has begun its own attacks in the North which has shown success. The small city of Kupiansk in the North has been facing heavy artillery fire since it was retaken by Ukraine last September and now Russian forces are approaching.
Ukraine hopes that its offensives in the south will force Russia to redeploy forces alleviating pressure from Kupiansk. The top Ukrainian general in the east has publicly called for reinforcements to be sent to the Northeast and Kupiansk. Ukraine has made great efforts over the past months to evacuate civilians from the area, however, residents of Kupiansk and the surrounding area are defying the orders and remaining in their homes. Only 1,400 people have evacuated from Kupiansk.
Despite criticism from Western powers, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has refused to dedicate his troops to the southern offensive and is instead using large quantities of forces to keep the North in an effort to defend not only the strategic locations in the North but the people caught there as well. It is also important to recognize the efforts of the Ukrainian Partisan fighters, working in the shadows behind the frontline sabotaging Russian supply lines and killing/capturing Russian troops. They have fought bravely the past year making the occupation of Eastern Ukraine as hard for Russian forces as possible, as well as fighting the Russians in Crimea.
It has now been a full year and a half since the start of the invasion, estimated Russian casualties are estimated to be around 297,000 , and Ukrainian casualties are estimated to be around 92,000 which is a casualty ratio of 1:3 in favor of Ukraine. Russian tank losses stand at an estimated 3,380 and Ukrainian tank losses are at an estimated 2,050 leading to a ratio of about 1:0.5 in favor of Ukraine. Fighting has been rough and even though they may not be talked about, Russian and Ukrainian forces are clashing in smaller skirmishes and battles daily, for more information on areas of combat and where they are, see understandingwar.org.
Now that the war in Ukraine has come to a standstill, both sides, despite launching offensives, are failing to make significant expansions in the face of dug-in, heavily fortified positions.
Recently the United States has sent AIM-9M missiles for air defense, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System munitions, 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition, and more than 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition to Ukraine. The Netherlands is also spearheading the supplies being sent to Ukraine as they have pledged 16 of the 42 F-16s in their navy with the rest being used for training. They have sent 2.7 billion in military aid to Ukraine, the fourth most of any European nation.
Russia expected the war to go something like the German blitzkrieg in the Second World War. When that failed, Russia still chose to fight this war as if it were World War II. However, World War II was a war of total annihilation where the goal was to destroy the enemy and leave nothing left. No other war has been fought like that. The objective of war is not total annihilation, it is to reduce your enemy’s ability to fight until he can no longer fight. Ukraine has shown to somewhat understand that with its drone strikes into Russian territory and counter-artillery barrages. Russia has shown its incompetence in this factor as it still tries to fight as if the goal is to destroy everything and occupy the entire country and that idea of indiscriminately destroying your enemy and everything they have is the wrong way to fight war which is a large contributor to why Ukraine has lasted for so long.
In the coming months or even years, more than likely Ukraine will eventually lose, or white peace will be signed. This is now a war of attrition and Russia has far more manpower and equipment than Ukraine could ever dream of. Ultimately Russia has the long-term advantage, but for now, neither side will show weakness and the front will remain mostly stagnant as it has since summer began.
